Click here to find similar posts on other lotteries and games of chance.
How the Game Works
The game Three-Card Monte is typically just a con to sucker anyone dumb enough to play out of all their money, but we're going to assume for this blog post that we're dealing with a completely fair version of the game. A dealer has three cards on a table, a "money card" and two others. The money card is typically the Queen of Hearts and the other cards are typically the Jack of Spades and Jack of Clubs. A player is asked to bet that they can find the money card after the dealer has turned the cards face down and expertly re-arranged them. The player guesses which card is the Queen and wins if he guesses correctly. The wager is lost if the player is wrong.
Probabilities and Prizes
The player is generally led to believe that if he watches closely, he can follow the Queen at all times and know where it ends up when the dealer is done shuffling. However, during shuffling a skilled dealer stacks up two cards in one hand and can throw either the bottom card or the top card down at will. When executed correctly, the player can't tell which of the two cards was thrown. Therefore, it becomes a game of chance for the player rather than a game of skill. There is a 1 in 3 chance of revealing the money card, which pays out 1:1 on the wager.
Expected Value
The expected value of a fair version of Three-Card Monte is easy to calculate because there is only one way to play and only two possible outcomes. There's a 1 in 3 chance of winning the wager and 2 in 3 chance of losing it. Therefore, the expected value is -1/3 times the wager. In other words, for every dollar wagered, on average, you're losing a third of it.
So playing Three-Card Monte is a good way to throw money away even if the game is played fairly. However, if played fairly, Three-Card Monte is a smarter gamble than 50/50 draws or lotteries. That said, keep in mind this analysis was merely hypothetical. Three-Card Monte is a con game and a number of tricks are used to ensure that the player never wins a single bet. In other words, your true expected value in a realistic game is -1, or at least much closer to -1 than my hypothetical analysis suggests.
So playing Three-Card Monte is a good way to throw money away even if the game is played fairly. However, if played fairly, Three-Card Monte is a smarter gamble than 50/50 draws or lotteries. That said, keep in mind this analysis was merely hypothetical. Three-Card Monte is a con game and a number of tricks are used to ensure that the player never wins a single bet. In other words, your true expected value in a realistic game is -1, or at least much closer to -1 than my hypothetical analysis suggests.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteAGEN SLOTS DEPOSIT PULSA POTONGAN TERMURAH
ReplyDeleteVillaslots Agen Slots Online Terpercaya yang memberikan promo menarik dan pelayanan terbaik
Situs Judi Online yang menyediakan Deposit Pulsa Slots dengan Potongan Termurah
PROMO :
- Bonus New Member 100%
- Bonus Deposit Harian 100%
- Bonus Rollingan Slots 0.5%
villaslots
deposit pulsa slots
deposit pulsa potongan termurah
deposit pulsa joker123
agen slots online terpercaya
Villaslots is a Trusted Online Slots Agent
A very awesome blog post. We are really grateful for your blog post. You will find a lot of approaches after visiting your post. เซ็กซี่บาคาร่า
ReplyDeleteExcellent article. Very interesting to read. I really love to read such a nice article. Thanks! keep rocking. สมัครบาคาร่า
ReplyDeleteThere are several dissertation web sites on the net once you locate unsurprisingly explained in the website. Daftar poker online
ReplyDeletePoker E wallet easy and new definity deposit wiht elektrik or digital bank for play in Indonesia gamble poker online & slot favorit 2021.
ReplyDeleteThis particular is usually apparently essential and moreover outstanding truth along with for sure fair-minded and moreover admittedly useful My business is looking to find in advance designed for this specific useful stuffs… บาคาร่า
ReplyDeleteThis particular papers fabulous, and My spouse and i enjoy each of the perform that you have placed into this. I’m sure that you will be making a really useful place. I has been additionally pleased. Good perform! KU970
ReplyDeleteAwesome article, it was exceptionally helpful! I simply began in this and I'm becoming more acquainted with it better! Cheers, keep doing awesome! judi slot
ReplyDeleteId Pro merupakan daftar bandar slot 24 jam terbaik nomor 1 di Indonesia pada saat ini.
ReplyDeleteI recently realized your website the other day and that i happen to be following it’s routinely. You’ve got great deal of tips proper here so i delight in your lifestyle of online site likewise. Preserve acknowledge that there are succeed! link alternatif sbobet
ReplyDeleteYou made some good points there. I looked on the internet for the subject and found most individuals will go along with with your site.
ReplyDeletedaftar situs judi slot online
Thanks for the blog loaded with so many information. Stopping by your blog helped me to get what I was looking for. slot online gampang jackpot
ReplyDeleteYou made such an interesting piece to read, giving every subject enlightenment for us to gain knowledge. Thanks for sharing the such information with us to read this... หนังไทย
ReplyDeleteYou made such an interesting piece to read, giving every subject enlightenment for us to gain knowledge. Thanks for sharing the such information with us to read this... หนังตลก
ReplyDeleteYou made such an interesting piece to read, giving every subject enlightenment for us to gain knowledge. Thanks for sharing the such information with us to read this... สล็อต เว็บ ตรง
ReplyDeleteAwesome article, it was exceptionally helpful! I simply began in this and I'm becoming more acquainted with it better! Cheers, keep doing awesome! Satta number
ReplyDeleteSatta King is the top entertainment gambling site available to gamblers. Many bettors around the world gamble on the website and earn cash. Satta King is a popular site for betting. Black satta king website offers a variety of Bazar games for your customers. You can select the game that your customers are likely to enjoy playing and earn big cash sums.
ReplyDeletePlease share more like that. 먹튀검증사이트
ReplyDeletei read a lot of stuff and i found that the way of writing to clearifing that exactly want to say was very good so i am impressed and ilike to come again in future.. read more
ReplyDeleteThis is my first time i visit here and I found so many interesting stuff in your blog especially it's discussion, thank you. pg
ReplyDeleteNice blog and absolutely outstanding. You can do something much better but i still say this perfect.Keep trying for the best. ogłoszenia towarzyskie Bydgoszcz
ReplyDelete